To win the Democratic nomination this year, a candidate must garner at least 2,024 of 4,047 delegates. However, these numbers are misleading, because the Democratic Party splits its delegates into groups of pledged delegates and superdelegates who have the opportunity to change their votes before the national convention in August. The pledged delegates are responsible for 3,253 of the total, and superdelegates account for the remaining 795.
Currently, Barack Obama has secured 1,622 total delegates to Hillary Clinton's 1,485. If we remove the superdelegates, our picture changes: 1,413 pledged delegates for Obama and 1,242 for Clinton. In total, 2,655 pledged delegates have already been awarded and 598 remain. From these numbers, it is not difficult to deduce that either candidate needs a vast majority of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the nomination without help from the superdelegates. This scenario is unlikely if we consider the relative closeness of the elections to this point.
Thus, we can safely assume that the nominee will effectively be chosen by the superdelegates. Many pundits argue that this situation will lead to problems at the convention if factions within the party feel that the superdelegates went against the wishes of the Democratic voters. However, I submit that there is a second problem associated with this possibility: The superdelegates might end up choosing the candidate who has the most positive media momentum before the convention, as opposed to the candidate most qualified to run the country.
The power of such momentum helps to explain the negative response to Obama's close losses in Ohio and Texas. After all, he ended up losing both states by a few points after trailing in pre-election polls by considerable margins. Normally, this would have been a victory in a campaign, but because Obama developed a great deal of positive media momentum beforehand, his inability to continue winning was viewed as a setback. Following those primaries, the campaigns have engaged in a momentum battle, each trying to win the media coverage day-to-day while reducing their focus on policy positions.
As the convention approaches, there will be increased pressure for the superdelegates to finalize the Democratic nominee. The candidate who can paint the best picture of him or herself or, more likely, who can paint the more negative picture of his or her opponent will win the nomination. Sadly, this candidate will have more momentum, but might also lack the policy positions necessary to ensure America's prosperity in the years to come.
Dante Marinucci is a junior in political science and economics and president of the Undergraduate Political Science Organization. He can be reached at
marinucci.3@osu.edu.
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