The Lantern

Issue date: 2/16/07 Section: Campus

"The oil crisis will be here in three years. I don't know many people who think we have ten years, anymore," said Seppo Korpela, an Ohio State professor of mechanical engineering who has been trying for five years to raise public awareness about peak oil theory.

Korpela said the theory holds that when the world's production of oil peaks, it will then decline, causing serious economic and social disruption unless viable substitutes for oil are found.

"As these things develop, society is going to be forced to make adjustments," said Korpela, who has published articles about the issue. He has also spoken on campus to students and off-campus to organizations such as the Ohio Petroleum Marketers Association.

"If we have good public discourse, the country can move in the right direction," he said. Korpela said there is a long way to go, however, to achieve a level of public concern that matches the seriousness of the issue.

"Most people have very little knowledge on what is happening with peak oil," said Greg Washington, an OSU professor of mechanical engineering. They see (gasoline) prices going up and they know that it may be related to demand, but they have no idea that we could be approaching the worldwide peak."

He said most people think oil will sooner or later run out, but they are confused about when that will happen.

"If you place the peak at 50 years from now, then you perceive that we have time for technology to change our lives," Washington said.

Korpela, however, was in direct opposition, and said that is wishful thinking.

"If we had all kinds of time, we could develop the technology, but the numbers that are in play today are staggering if you look at the millions of barrels of oil we consume every day. The obstacles are formidable," he said.

Big oil companies cause this confusion by exerting their influence over the news media and government, said John Stauber, the executive director and founder of the Center for Media and Democracy.

"Will the news media actually start to dig and file stories that step on the toes of big advertisers in the energy and automotive sectors, or will they continue to bury this story and allow these issues to fester further?" Stauber said.

Jack Zagar, who is executive director of the Ireland branch of the International Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, or ASPO-Ireland, gives an additional reason for why members of the general public may not be concerned about oil depletion.

Some people suspect oil companies are hiding reserves and deliberately cutting back on production in order to keep oil prices high, Zagar said.

"In reality, the top 20 international oil companies have less than 15 percent of the world's oil reserves. The rest are held by national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco," Zagar said.

For some people, a lack of concern about oil depletion results from their idea of a conspiracy. A message posted on the Web site Inforwars.com said, "Peak oil is a scam designed to create artificial scarcity and jack up prices while giving the state an excuse to invade our lives and order us to sacrifice our hard-earned living standards."

Korpela said the truth is quite the opposite. He said those living standards will slip away from us if we do not quickly find substitutes for oil.

"Once we hit this oil peak, first we are going to have to grapple with the fact that we can't drive our cars. Second, this long-haul trucking of goods is going to end," Korpela said.

Obviously, that long-distance trucking of goods involves food. Korpela said trucks require petroleum to carry the food and the mechanized farm equipment that makes feeding millions of people possible.

Given scenarios such as these, thinking about the possible consequences of oil depletion may be too depressing for most of the public to bear, said Ron Swenson, a member of the board of directors of ASPO-USA.

"It is painful for people to consider a future that is different or worse than now," Swenson said. "Combining peak oil and global warming, we have a lot of challenges ahead."

But those challenges will be manageable, not dire, said Mark Lewis, an OSU professor of economics who studies energy markets.

"You're not going to see this point where suddenly we run out," Lewis said. "You're just going to see where we gradually shift away from using oil."

He said market forces will spur the switch from oil to alternative sources of fuel because, as oil prices rise, investors know that money can be made from substitutes. Lewis said the depletion will be gradual enough to give us time to find and put substitutes to use.

"You shouldn't see huge economic impacts. I don't think there's a doomsday scenario," Lewis said.

Tom Over can be reached at over.3@osu.edu.

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